Surf City El Salvador ISA World Junior Surfing Championship Forecast

Brief Overview:

  • Fun-size SSW swell Sat fades Sun
  • Back-to-back long period SW swells for next week
  • Nearby tropical activity likely to have some swell/wind impacts next week– details to be refined in the coming days

Swell/Surf Outlook

SATURDAY 28th: Easing SSW swell with 4-6’ faces AM. Light offshore AM wind, PM sea breeze, later PM clean up
SWELL/SURF: The SSW swell we have seen over the past couple days will trend down through the day, with the largest waves early. Smaller, short period swells mixing in from the S and W to give the surf a slight jumble.
WIND: Weak NE wind in the morning turns light onshore southerly by mid morning and into the afternoon. Mid to later afternoon shift to westerly wind and conditions clean up some.

SUNDAY 29th: Smaller 3-4 occ. 5’ faces off mix of swells.
SWELL/SURF: Old SSW swell leftovers are joined by long period forerunners from the SW. Smaller, short period swells continue to mix in from the S and W to give the surf a slight jumble.
WIND: Weak NE wind in the morning turns light onshore southerly by mid morning and into the afternoon. Mid to later afternoon shift to light/moderate westerly wind (side/offshore).

MONDAY 30th: Building 4-6’ faces become 5-8’ faces by day’s end off mix of swells. Potentially jumbled by day’s end as well.
SWELL/SURF: Long period SW swell gradually but steadily builds through the day with surf increasing from head high+ to a couple/few feet overhead by the end of the day. Good size and power with the long period energy.  We may also see an increase in short period WSW to W swell from what is likely to become a tropical cyclone off Southern Mexico sometime this weekend. Stay tuned.
WIND: Light/variable wind early with building, moderate strength W wind for the afternoon.

TUESDAY 31st: 5-8’ faces off mix of swells. Jumbled conditions possible.
SWELL/SURF: Long period SW swell fills in a bit more and should peak. Short period W/WSW swell may also continue from the tropical cyclone – no additional size is expected, although the short period swell will possibly make for mixed up surf. Stay tuned.
WIND: Weak NE wind in the morning turns light onshore southerly by mid morning and into the afternoon. Mid to later afternoon shift to westerly wind.

WEDNESDAY 1st: 4-7’ faces off mix of swells. Jumbled conditions possible.
SWELL/SURF: SW swell slowly backs down. Short period W/WSW swell may also continue from the tropical cyclone – no additional size is expected beyond what the SW swell provides, but the short period swell will possibly make for mixed up surf. Stay tuned.
WIND: Sideshore to side-offshore W to WNW wind possible through the day.

Swell/Surf Outlook

We’ve got a dynamic forecast lining up with no shortage of surf. Overlapping SSW turning SW swells prevail over the next few days. It’s also increasingly likely that we’ll see some surf and potentially some wind impacts from a tropical cyclone that develops off Southern Mexico this weekend.

The event will kick off with a mid-size SSW swell, the tail end of the swell we’ve seen over the past couple days. Surf will be in the head high+ range during the morning when conditions look favorable with light winds. Smaller surf is due for Sunday as the old SSW swell fades further and the new, long period SW swell forerunners begin to mix in. We’ll also see some small, short period swell from both the S and W over the weekend, which will give the surf a slightly mixed-up feel.

An extended run of long period SW swell will provide surf throughout the coming week before slowly winding down for the final weekend of the event. These SW swells will come from recent storms near New Zealand – a long way from El Salvador but they will pack some power. Surf will rebuild through Monday with a peak late Monday and Tuesday before easing Wednesday. The second swell will build on Thursday and peak Friday. These swells look close in size/direction, although the second event should be slightly larger. We’ll see surf running from overhead to a few feet overhead during the respective peaks.

Confidence is slowly increasing that we’ll see at least some surf and wind impacts from a tropical cyclone that is highly likely to develop over the weekend off Southern Mexico. The exact details are lower confidence and will need to be refined, but shorter period WSW/W swell may be present for most of the upcoming week. We don’t expect any additional size from this potential run of swell beyond what we’ll see from the long period SW, but there will probably be quality impacts with more jumbled and broken up surf.

Further out, our longer range model guidance remains split regarding how the general weather pattern will set up over Central America with broad low pressure possibly in pace over nearly the entire region. Confidence is slowly increasing that we’ll see increased westerly wind Wed/Thu (not a bad direction), although exact strength will need to be refined. Stay tuned, we should be able to provide a few more details in our next update.

Next Update: Sunday Evening, May 29th (local time)

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